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[THE US NEXT WEEK] The da
Posted by: | Comments[THE US NEXT WEEK] The data calendar next week is very busy through
Friday, when we get to see the November jobs data release. Odds are that
the November retail hiring figure will be distorted by the early push in
holiday sales – adding to November's count just to steal from December's.
Chicago PMI and both ISM reports, productivity (up) and unit cost (down)
data, Case/Shiller home price figures, consumer confidence, Challenger and
ADP job figures, construction spending, vehicle and chain store sales
figures and pending home sales are all due, keeping things very busy. In
addition, there is a full slate of Fed speakers, including Bernanke, and
the Beige Book for the December FOMC meeting. We are interested to see if
the widening of European credit spreads comes in for mention. All of
these potentially market moving events come in what promises to be thin
volume, so perhaps high volatility
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[CANADIAN BUDGET BALANCE]
Posted by: | Comments[CANADIAN BUDGET BALANCE] The finance department reports that the
budget was in deficit in September by C$ 3.92 bln, down from C$ 4.97 bln a
year ago. Revenues were up 13.1% y/y, while outlays were up 3.1%. The
fiscal-year-to-date balance is a deficit of C$ 17.44 bln vs a deficit of
C$ 28.64 bln a year ago. The finance department reports that about C$ 9 bln
of the year-to-date deficit is the result of stimulus efforts, which
implies that the deficit on the rest of the budget (ignoring dynamic
effects) is roughly C$ 8.4 bln. The government anticipates a C$ 55.6 bln
full-year deficit
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[ECB'S WELLINK] has
Posted by: | Comments[ECB'S WELLINK] has been speaking on the Dutch central bank website
about separating banks into a utility & and a merchant bank. He says that
financial institutions need rest period to recover (after recent financial
crises presumably) as a break up may pressure their financial health. He
added, there should not be any forced break up of these institutions as
splitting them up creates uncertainty which hampers their recovery
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[IRISH PM COWEN] on the w
Posted by: | Comments[IRISH PM COWEN] on the wires per RTE interview saying the aid-loan
package details are still not finalized but the borrowing rate seen in 6%
region based on what Irish govt assumes the cost would be in their budget
plan. But Cowen adds the final rate will depend on a number of factors
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[BUNDS/GILTS] slipping to
Posted by: | Comments[BUNDS/GILTS] slipping to new, albeit marginal lows for the day at
127.97/121.27 (-91 and -56 ticks resp) around the time that comments from
ECB's Wellink hit some wires and essentially underlined that the CB is in
exit mode, albeit gradually (ie further liquidity withdrawal). In truth
there is so much going on that to say these headlines were the catalyst
may be wide of the mark with the German Econ Min also referring to the
earlier and record breaking Nov Ifo survey (climate and expectations
components) as evidence that the Eurozone's growth engine is on a
self-perpetuating recovery and more broad-based. He claims the country is
racing towards full employment, while another EMU leading indicator –
Belgium's Nov [BUS CONFIDENCE] is also stronger than expected at 0.8 from
-2.8. The problem is not all the Eurozone economies are showing such
buoyancy and the periphery is still waiting for austerity to bite
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Once again, storming numb
Posted by: | CommentsOnce again, storming numbers out of Germany. Following the much
firmer than forecast flash PMIs Tues, the IFO has just come in at a best
ever 109.3. And once again, [EUR/USD] just cannot rally on the numbers.
A new post data low of 1.3312 has just been recorded. EMU contagion
worries and perceived German disillusionment with the Euro project are
standout negative drivers. Expect profit taking into our identified
1.3295/00 support zone, but there are good size stops below there and
through 110.00 in Eur/Jpy too
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[EUROPEAN PREVIEW] Risk a
Posted by: | Comments[EUROPEAN PREVIEW] Risk aversion took centrestage yest when North
Korean pounded a South Korean island & later during the Euro session when
German Chanc Merkel said that the prospect of serial bailouts was
"exceptionally serious See page
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Heading into year end, gl
Posted by: | CommentsHeading into year end, global markets are being entrenched in a
classic [RISK AVERSE] scenario, which was heightened by geopolitical
jitters stemming from an exchange of artillery between North and South
Korea late in yest's Asian session. Combined with deepening concerns over
Irish alongside peripheral European debt, the US insider trading probe and
prospects of further China tightening, risk exposure has been unwound
broadly. What started with a sell off in Asian currencies as well as the
closely affiliated Aussie accelerated into the offshore session; with
global equity markets sent tumbling by over 1% (S&P -1.43%). Euro shed 3c
agst the USD after Merkel warned the Euro faced an exceptionally serious
situation, whilst safe haven ccies such as the Usd, Chf and Yen have all
rallied. UST ylds have also dipped but Gold is being favoured as the
preferred safe haven asset, with prices surging +$ 20 o/n to above $ 1380.
22:51 GMT – Like its Aussie cousin, the Kiwi also had its wings clipped and
plummeted to a 4-week low on the back of a hefty spike in risk aversion
brought on by falling Asian stocks & the skirmishes in the Korean
Oeninsula after the North artillery shelled one of the South island. The
[NZD/USD] which rose to the day's high of 0.7732 in early Asian trade hit
an intraday low around the 0.7650 level when news broke out on the events
in the Korean Peninsula. Falling Asian stocks also dragged the pair lower
before real money types buying in early European trade saw the pair edged
back towards the 0.7690/95 lvl. A poor session on Wall St which gave risk
aversion another fillip knocked the pair down to an o/n low of 0.7581
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[IRISH FIN MIN LENIHAN] i
Posted by: | Comments[IRISH FIN MIN LENIHAN] in affort to calm financial markets, is
talking up 4-yr austerity budget plan as groundwork for economic stability
going forward. It will include major structural reforms that will be
endorsed by EU and IMF, he adds. He also repeats that Irish bank deposits
remain safe while he expects a small rise in Irish GDP this year on better
exports. Meanwhile, Eur/Usd holding just a touch above session lows
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