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[EU ASSET MARKET WRAP] Th
Posted by: | Comments[EU ASSET MARKET WRAP] There was a big change in sentiment this
afternoon with several factors coming into play with, the catalyst came
from the passing of the Portuguese budget and increased hopes of a
conclusion to the Ireland deal also helped confidence. [STOCKS] rebounded
sharply & almost traded back to flat on the day but falling a mere 2 or 3
points shy. FTSE changed hands at 5694.7 (-4.2 ticks) vs a best on the
open at 5699 & DAX hit 6868.9 (-10.7 pts) compared to a session peak at
6871.7. [BONDS] have recovered slightly after dropping into negative
territory earlier this afternoon, Bunds were 13 ticks offside at 127.16
(vs +78 ticks at best) but now around 127.33 (+4 ticks) & Gilts traded 4
ticks underwater at 120.86 (compared to +68 ticks early on) but have since
crept back up to 121.05 (+15 ticks). [GOLD] is $ 17 softer at $ 1357 &
[OIL] -$ 0.24 at $ 83.62brl vs a $ 82.78brl base
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[EUROPEAN FX CLOSE] Downb
Posted by: | Comments[EUROPEAN FX CLOSE] Downbeat Irish news and rumours came thick and
fast, seeing Eur/Usd down to 1.3200 as a result. Usd/Yen rallied above
84.00 in late trade as stop loss chasing ensued. The only data release
saw the Swiss KOF dip to 2.12 from 2.16. See page
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Note the [free IGM Decemb
Posted by: | CommentsNote the [free IGM December Interest Rate and Yield Outlook] is now
available. This updates our latest central bank policy rate and yield
predictions. This month the overview assesses whether QE will work. For
your free copy, please e-mail your name, institution and e-mail address to
sales@informagm.com
16:05 GMT – [CANADIAN BUDGET BALANCE] The finance department reports that the
budget was in deficit in September by C$ 3.92 bln, down from C$ 4.97 bln a
year ago. Revenues were up 13.1% y/y, while outlays were up 3.1%. The
fiscal-year-to-date balance is a deficit of C$ 17.44 bln vs a deficit of
C$ 28.64 bln a year ago. The finance department reports that about C$ 9 bln
of the year-to-date deficit is the result of stimulus efforts, which
implies that the deficit on the rest of the budget (ignoring dynamic
effects) is roughly C$ 8.4 bln. The government anticipates a C$ 55.6 bln
full-year deficit
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[US STOCK CLOSE] Stock in
Posted by: | Comments[US STOCK CLOSE] Stock indices dropped sharply on the open, though
not as sharply as futures had suggested just a while before. Lows for the
session for the big indices were made right after the open, as offers were
processed in thin markets. Once that was handled, stocks commenced a
steady climb off the lows for the first hour. News that Portugal's
parliament had approved a government budget proposal narrowed credit
spreads for Europe's weaker credits, and since everything right now is
focused on those credit spreads, it provided a lift. The major indices
never managed to get back to flat, though, and there was a fresh slide
into the London close, with little price action after that. Commodities
were lower on a weak CRB, financials on wider spreads, while telecoms,
tech and consumer goods were the least bad of the lot. No major S&P
sector avoided losses for the day, with about 7 losers for each gainer
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[Asian Close] The Aussie
Posted by: | Comments[Asian Close] The Aussie was the clear underperformer this session
on the back of a dovish testimony by RBA Gov Stevens signalling that rates
will be on hold for some time and that the market should not expect an
imminent rate hike as the Aud/Usd fell to a low of 0.9705
See page
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The [ECB'S WEBER] is
Posted by: | CommentsThe [ECB'S WEBER] is adding his commentary to the run of officials
who have been trying to boost confidence in the [EUR] this week,
suggesting that it is one of the most stable currencies in the world, and
that it is just as stable as the Deutschmark (ever was). He suggests that
the Eur should be viewed as long-term project, and urges Europe and the
rest of the globe to work together. He does not see any alternative to
the Eur, and repeats that the Euro is not in danger. [EUR/USD] is barely
moved on the well worm rhetoric, stable around 1.3350 for now
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Real money accounts, leve
Posted by: | CommentsReal money accounts, leveraged names are cited as consistent sellers
of [EUR/USD]. Despite booming EMU flash PMIs earlier, concerns over the
peripherals continue to win out and a new low for the day of 1.3516 has
just been registered. Moody's admits it is concerned about Portugal and
next stops through 1.3500 look vulnerable. The near-term trend looks to
be in place and clearly sentiment towards the Euro is relatively negative,
but in truth, we will refrain from turning too bearish at this stage,
while price holds above the 1.3446 (Nov 16 low) and the 1.3435/40 fibo
(50% of 1.2588/1.4283 move). Big stops below, we are told
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[USD/CHF] which rose to a
Posted by: | Comments[USD/CHF] which rose to a session high in Asian trade on Friday
reversed its earlier gains to post an o/n low of 0.9877 during the
European session buoyed by the Eur/Usd getting a fillip from the Irish
Finance Minister that the country needed some sort of aid to shore up its
battered banks and budget deficits. However, heavy buying in the Eur/Chf
by a german and UK Clearer which saw the cross hit an o/n high of 1.3674
level weighed on the CHF giving a prop to the pair as it rose to an o/n
high of 0.9998 before easing back to end the US session around the 0.9920
level. The downside remains vulnerable as long as the parity level holds
the upside with any break above likely to see the 1.0075 level in a hurry.
on the day, buying orders at 0.9865 by a French name will protect the
downside and selling orders at 0.9970 by a European name will keep the
range
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[CANADA FIN MIN FLAHERTY]
Posted by: | Comments[CANADA FIN MIN FLAHERTY] on the wires, saying now is not the time
to increase Canada's budget deficit. The govt's next budget will have no
big new spending plans, since it is key to stay on course for a balanced
budget. He sounded confident that Cdn's economy is on the right track
although he still rated the global recovery as "fragile". Business tax
cuts are the best way to create new jobs, he added. In further press
remarks, he said the Ireland problem is being dealt with in an orderly and
expeditiously manner. It is important that there be an orderly resolution
of the Irish situation. Meanwhile, Usd/Cad$ generally steady around the
1.02 figure or just above its 50 day mov avg. Slightly weaker oil near $ 81
on China's RRR move is acting as a curb on fresh buys in commodity FXers.
16:59 GMT – [NA CHIP EQUIP-MAKERS] US chip-gear makers saw order demand slow
further in last month. The 3-mth avg for global bookings fell 3.5% to
$ 1.59 bln per SEMI trade group. Orders are still up 111% Y/Y. Meanwhile,
3-mth avg for billings or shipments edged up 0.7% to $ 1.62 bl but up 134%
Y/Y. That saw book-to-bill ratio fall below key 1.0 line for 1st time this
year to 0.98. That is lowest since June-09. The recovery high was 1.23
this July. The ratio hit low of 0.47 in Jan-09 or worst since 1991
recession. A book-to-bill of 0.983 means $ 98 worth of orders were received
for every $ 100 in product billed. Tech/IT spending has been a relative
bright spot but Oct's data reflects both seasonal weakness and some
caution on new orders from some industries. There have also been reports
from some Asian pc components makers of like re-order softness
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