Author Archive
[RASMUSSEN ON US CONSUMER
Posted by: | Comments[RASMUSSEN ON US CONSUMER OPTIMISM] Confidence in the US economy
among consumers is just a tad better so far in Nov per Rasmussen's daily
index (3-day avg). Latter fell to 82.6 today but still above Oct's avg of
81.8 and well above last March's record low of 54.7. Currently, 65% feel
the economy remains in a recession and 45% rate conditions as getting
worse vs only 21 as improving. Jobs/wages remain key sentiment drivers. In
related poll, only 21% think its a good time to sell a house vs 70% who
feel the opposite Meanwhile, cost of retail gasoline is holding near $ 2.88
on avg. That is 24 cents more vs year ago. Prices may dip if stays under
$ 82. Meanwhile, S&P 500 stocks are still up 3% this qtr. That offers some
wealth-related offset. There has been a decent correlation between holiday
spending and Q4 equity returns
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[SENIOR NY FED STAFFER CH
Posted by: | Comments[SENIOR NY FED STAFFER CHECKI] in a speech to NY economics group
repeated Chrm Bernanke's line overnight that Fed easing policy is not
targeting a lower Usd whether u believe that or not. Of course, monetary
policy will always impact free-floating fx markets. As per Bernanke said,
easing policy aimed at lifting growth which is bullish for Usd over time.
Checki is EVP for NY Fed's emerging markets and intl affairs group as has
acted as the NY Fed's chief "intl troubleshooter" per his bio
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[EUROPEAN PREVIEW] Firmer
Posted by: | Comments[EUROPEAN PREVIEW] Firmer equities & commodities with crude gaining
more than $ 1 & gold more than $ 10 saw risk appetite back on the table &
which was further buoyed by Ireland signalling that it will seek
assistance from the EU/IMF See page
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After reaching a fresh in
Posted by: | CommentsAfter reaching a fresh intraday high around the 0.9825/30 level on
bottom picking from investor types, the [AUD/USD] slipped towards the
0.9800 handle before more bargain hunting saw it bounced back to current
level of 0.9810/15. Mrs Watanabe buying of the Aud/Jpy which saw the cross
jumped close to the 82.00 handle also gave a prop to the pair. However,
with China lining a slew of measures to combat the red hot inflation in
the country likely to affect its growth and consequently demand for
commodities, the prognosis for the pair is not too bright over coming
months even with its yield advantage
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[NZ Q3 PPI REVIEW] Input
Posted by: | Comments[NZ Q3 PPI REVIEW] Input and moreso output inflation rose more than
expected over Q3, largely due to higher prices for dairy and livestock on
the back of increased raw mild costs and export prices. Input prices rose
by a tad firmer 0.7% on the qtr vs the mkt's 0.5% forecast and after
surging by 1.4% over Q2, whilst output prices continued to surge by 1.2%
q/q, double forecasts on a 0.6% gain after a 1.1% spike prior. On the
year, input price inflation rose by 3.8% (f/c 3.6%) from 2.0% whilst
output price inflation accelerated to 4.0% (f/c 3.4%) from 1.3%. Whilst
the figures show some build up in pressures; the data will unlikely have a
major bearing on RBNZ, especially with input prices, a measure of
wholesale inflation, moderating over the qtr. To this rates are still
expected to be left on hold until next year
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Get real on [UK GROWTH],
Posted by: | CommentsGet real on [UK GROWTH], but there is too much 'doom and gloom'
surrounding the CSR. That's the view on Britain's economy from the
Institute of Directors [IOD] as they f/c a 'square root' shaped recovery
with growth of 1.2% in 2011, down from the initial 1.8% prediction. The
view severely undercooks outlooks from the BoE (3%) and OBR (2.3%). The
IoD also serves a chilling warning that if it is correct, ie a flat growth
projection, then the Chanc may have to make more cuts or raise taxes to
keep his deficit cutting plan on track. Meanwhile, the BoE said yest it
will invoke its Secured Commercial Paper Facility. The programme aims to
help medium size businesses that do not have access to the bond market
allowing them to secure cash against their assets. Note also, King,
Tucker and Dale all testify before a House of Lords Committee (at
15.30GMT) ahead of Wed's Nov MPC mins and after UK CPI today (9.30GMT)
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[GBP/USD] slipped to an i
Posted by: | Comments[GBP/USD] slipped to an intraday low around 1.6030 on selling by
leveraged accounts but jumped back to an intraday high around 1.6080 after
New York Fed Dudley's comments that the need to exit from current policies
could "be years away." The pair is likely to remain steady ahead of the
release of the Oct CPI data at 9.30 GMT with market consensus calling for
an unchnaged 3.1% y/y print which will make it the 8th consecutive month
it has been above the BOE's target range. With food and energy prices
still at lofty levels, market players expect the CPI to be hot so any
print below 3% y/y will be negative for the pair
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[US/JPY] is consolidating
Posted by: | Comments[US/JPY] is consolidating gains near 83 handle, with sharply higher
Tsy yields today supporting Usd bulls. Some model fund types seen on any
pullback into 50 day mov avg around 82.65/70. But Usd upside tempered by
reportedly offers above $ 83.20. The run-up in 10-yr Tsy yield to nearly
2.91% now is following the pattern when QE1 was implemented. At that time,
the 10-yr bond yield surged from 2.5% to 4% in just 5 months as US stocks
rallied on broad reflation bets for economic growth
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[US SPEAKERS' CORNER
Posted by: | Comments[US SPEAKERS' CORNER] Congress is back now for a short "lame duck"
session, with expiring Bush tax cuts as a major agenda item. Also on Tues,
Senate Banking Cmte will have another try at recommending Nobel Laureate
Peter Diamond's for his Fed Gov nomination. It will also hold a hearing on
problems in mortgage servicing. There will be a number of Fed policymakers
speaking this week, including Chrm Bernanke on Friday at an ECB confab on
the topic of "Global Rebalancing". He takes part in a later panel
discussion. Fed coming under increasing criticism for launching QE2. Other
Fed speakers include current FOMC voters Boston's Rosengren, St Louis'
Bullard, Gov Warsh along with Atlanta's Lockhart and hawkish leaning
Philly's Plosser and Minn's Kockerlakota
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[EU ASSET MARKET UPDATE]
Posted by: | Comments[EU ASSET MARKET UPDATE] [GILTS] have continued to pare early 2/5 pt
losses, edging up to a new session peak of 122.22 (-15 ticks on the day)
in recent activity vs 121.96 at worst. Note, the contract attracted some
retail buying at the technical support just above the three month low of
121.93 from 13th Sep. [BUNDS] are still within the session's established
47 tick trading range (128.70-129.17) at 129.01 (-40 ticks on the day),
hence, the Dec10 Bund/Gilt spread is circa 1/4pt tighter at 679 ticks &
down from 752 ticks on the 10th Nov. [DAX] has popped back into the
black, changing hands at 6739.3 (+4.7 points from Fri's settlement level)
having seen a 55 point loss early on. [FTSE] is 10 points in the red at
5787 but 20+ points above worst levels. [GOLD] is edging higher again,
adding $ 3 to $ 1371 & [OIL] just off session peaks at $ 85.44brl (+
$ 0.56brl)
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