Archive for Forex News
Euro May Rally Further on Forex Crowd Sentiment
Posted by: | CommentsDavid Rodriguez, On Thursday December 2, 2010, 11:09 am EST
EURUSD – Forex crowd trading sentiment shows that traders have recently turned bearish the EURUSD, giving contrarian signal to watch for further strength. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. in detail, long positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 5.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 10.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.9% weaker than yesterday and 3.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
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Euro May Rally Further on Forex Crowd Sentiment
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[EU ASSET MARKET WRAP] Th
Posted by: | Comments[EU ASSET MARKET WRAP] There was a big change in sentiment this
afternoon with several factors coming into play with, the catalyst came
from the passing of the Portuguese budget and increased hopes of a
conclusion to the Ireland deal also helped confidence. [STOCKS] rebounded
sharply & almost traded back to flat on the day but falling a mere 2 or 3
points shy. FTSE changed hands at 5694.7 (-4.2 ticks) vs a best on the
open at 5699 & DAX hit 6868.9 (-10.7 pts) compared to a session peak at
6871.7. [BONDS] have recovered slightly after dropping into negative
territory earlier this afternoon, Bunds were 13 ticks offside at 127.16
(vs +78 ticks at best) but now around 127.33 (+4 ticks) & Gilts traded 4
ticks underwater at 120.86 (compared to +68 ticks early on) but have since
crept back up to 121.05 (+15 ticks). [GOLD] is $ 17 softer at $ 1357 &
[OIL] -$ 0.24 at $ 83.62brl vs a $ 82.78brl base
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The [EUROPEAN COMMISSION]
Posted by: | CommentsThe [EUROPEAN COMMISSION], the EU's executive arm, has stepped into
the debate about the [2011 BUDGET] in the hope of easing tensions between
the Parl and the EU Govts. The Commission released a draft budget earlier
today, which supported a 2.9% increase in funding compared to Parl's
request for a 6.2% rise. The EC's proposal matches the much more moderate
increase desired by the Govts that have been up in arms over the demands
from Parl. However, the EC has included a sweetener for Parl with the
draft including a clause intended to increase its negotiating power for
future budgets. The Commission is hopeful that the budget problems can be
resolved before the end of the year, and indeed would like a decision made
at the EU Summit on Dec 16
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[EUROPEAN FX CLOSE] Downb
Posted by: | Comments[EUROPEAN FX CLOSE] Downbeat Irish news and rumours came thick and
fast, seeing Eur/Usd down to 1.3200 as a result. Usd/Yen rallied above
84.00 in late trade as stop loss chasing ensued. The only data release
saw the Swiss KOF dip to 2.12 from 2.16. See page
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Note the [free IGM Decemb
Posted by: | CommentsNote the [free IGM December Interest Rate and Yield Outlook] is now
available. This updates our latest central bank policy rate and yield
predictions. This month the overview assesses whether QE will work. For
your free copy, please e-mail your name, institution and e-mail address to
sales@informagm.com
16:05 GMT – [CANADIAN BUDGET BALANCE] The finance department reports that the
budget was in deficit in September by C$ 3.92 bln, down from C$ 4.97 bln a
year ago. Revenues were up 13.1% y/y, while outlays were up 3.1%. The
fiscal-year-to-date balance is a deficit of C$ 17.44 bln vs a deficit of
C$ 28.64 bln a year ago. The finance department reports that about C$ 9 bln
of the year-to-date deficit is the result of stimulus efforts, which
implies that the deficit on the rest of the budget (ignoring dynamic
effects) is roughly C$ 8.4 bln. The government anticipates a C$ 55.6 bln
full-year deficit
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[EU'S REHN] says he
Posted by: | Comments[EU'S REHN] says he welcomes the approval by the Portuguese
parliament of the 2011 [BUDGET] which sets ambitious targets and broadly
has the correct measures to lower the deficit to 4.6% of GDP next year
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[FED SPEAKERS NEXT WEEK]
Posted by: | Comments[FED SPEAKERS NEXT WEEK] There is a hefty list of Fed speakers next
week, including Bernanke. Fed officials are still focused on defending
their policy stance as the only major central bank actively increasing
policy accommodation. However, Europe's debt troubles have increased since
that decision was made. The last FOMC minutes, from the meeting at which
the new round of asset purchases was decided upon, noted that credit
spreads were mostly narrowing – with the exception of Ireland. Since
then, credit spreads for the European periphery have widened back to
around the size seen during the Greek debt crisis. Fed officials cited
European debt troubles back then a central cause of mid-year US economic
slowing. We are interested to see how much attention next week's Fed
speakers give to the latest round of European spread widening
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[THE US NEXT WEEK] The da
Posted by: | Comments[THE US NEXT WEEK] The data calendar next week is very busy through
Friday, when we get to see the November jobs data release. Odds are that
the November retail hiring figure will be distorted by the early push in
holiday sales – adding to November's count just to steal from December's.
Chicago PMI and both ISM reports, productivity (up) and unit cost (down)
data, Case/Shiller home price figures, consumer confidence, Challenger and
ADP job figures, construction spending, vehicle and chain store sales
figures and pending home sales are all due, keeping things very busy. In
addition, there is a full slate of Fed speakers, including Bernanke, and
the Beige Book for the December FOMC meeting. We are interested to see if
the widening of European credit spreads comes in for mention. All of
these potentially market moving events come in what promises to be thin
volume, so perhaps high volatility
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[NORTH AMERICAN FX CLOSE]
Posted by: | Comments[NORTH AMERICAN FX CLOSE] The entire focus was on Europe's sovereign
debt market, talk of Portugal being pushed to ask for an aid package and
the like. As a result, the dollar had a strong bid overnight and help
onto gains through the shortened US session. See page
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[US STOCK CLOSE] Stock in
Posted by: | Comments[US STOCK CLOSE] Stock indices dropped sharply on the open, though
not as sharply as futures had suggested just a while before. Lows for the
session for the big indices were made right after the open, as offers were
processed in thin markets. Once that was handled, stocks commenced a
steady climb off the lows for the first hour. News that Portugal's
parliament had approved a government budget proposal narrowed credit
spreads for Europe's weaker credits, and since everything right now is
focused on those credit spreads, it provided a lift. The major indices
never managed to get back to flat, though, and there was a fresh slide
into the London close, with little price action after that. Commodities
were lower on a weak CRB, financials on wider spreads, while telecoms,
tech and consumer goods were the least bad of the lot. No major S&P
sector avoided losses for the day, with about 7 losers for each gainer
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